Menu

UW research: World population could be nearly 11 billion by 2100

The projected rise is mostly due to fertility in Africa

Molloy McElroy

News/University of Washington

 

A new statistical analysis shows the world population could reach nearly 11 billion by the end of the century, according to a United Nations report issued June 13. That’s about 800 million, or about 8 percent, more than the previous projection of 10.1 billion, issued in 2011.

The projected rise is mostly due to fertility in Africa, where the U.N. had expected birth rates to decline more quickly than they have.

“The fertility decline in Africa has slowed down or stalled to a larger extent than we previously predicted, and as a result the African population will go up,” said Adrian Raftery, a University of Washington professor of statistics and of sociology.

Continue reading.